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    Source: European Commission's Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations
    Country: Mozambique

    Situation

    • Tropical Cyclone DINEO continued moving west south-west over the Mozambique Channel towards southern Mozambique, strengthening.

    • On 15 February at 00.00 UTC its centre was located approx. 260 km north-east of Inhambane city (Inhambane province) and had max. sustained wind speed of 111 km/h (Tropical Storm). It may make landfall close to Massinga city (Massinga district, Inhambane province), on 15 February afternoon (UTC) possibly as a Tropical Cyclone (equivalent to a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). JRC estimations indicate a maximum storm surge height of 0.5 m in Morrumbene (Inhambane province) on 15 February at 23.00 UTC.

    • Over the next 24 h, it is forecast to continue moving over land, crossing the provinces of Inhambane and Gaza, weakening but remaining a Tropical Storm. Heavy rain and strong winds may affect the southern and eastern areas of the country.

    Sources: GDACS, JTWC, INAM, Meteo France LaReunion, Local media


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    Source: UNOSAT
    Country: Mozambique

    The Tropical Cyclone Dineo-17, is approaching Mozambique coasts and is expected to make landfall The 16 February 2017 in the central province of Inhambane. Potential heavy rainfall are also expected according microwave satellite sensors and might induce floodings in the affected areas. This report provides an analysis on the potentially exposed population per wind speed zones in Mozambique. According to our analysis approximately 250,000 people in Mozambique may be exposed to over 120km/h sustainable wind speeds and 59,000 people might be exposed to 90km/h wind speed. About 1,160,000 people might be exposed to moderate winds of 60km/h.


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    Source: UN Resident Coordinator for Mozambique
    Country: Mozambique

    Highlights

     According to MTOTEC the system has evolved from severe tropical storm to tropical cyclone category 3;

     Strong winds and heavy rains expected to occur from 15-18 February in Gaza, Inhambane and Maputo provinces.

     The population at risk is estimated to be approximately 730,000 people (JTWC) and 750,000 (provincial authorities of Inhambane);

     Assessment teams on standby to be deployed and support provincial authorities;

     Cities and villages of Maxixe, Morrumbene, Massinga, Inharrime, Funalouro and Homoíne are at the moment partially without electricity.

    Situation Overview

    Mozambique is being affected by tropical storm formed in the Mozambique channel. According to MTOTEC (satellite imagery, surface analysis, and storm system information for the southwest Indian Ocean cyclone basin) the system has evolved from severe tropical storm to tropical cyclone category 31 . The system is moving faster with a speed of 19 km/h and is brining strong winds of about 160km/h. According to information from the field, the cyclone effect is already being felt in the risk districts.

    From 15 to 18 February 2017, the National Institute of meteorology (INAM) foresee that in Gaza province the districts of Mandlakazi, Xai-Xai, Chibuto, Guija, Massingir, Mabalane and in Inhambane province districts of Morrumbene, Jangamo, Inharime, Panda, Homoine, Vilankulos, Maxixe, Massinga, Zavala, and Inhambane city might be affected by strong winds and heavy rains.

    Usually strong winds and heavy rains affects the electricity poles, telecommunication, road infrastructure, schools and crop areas. Most of these impacts will result on electricity failure/black out in Inhambane and Gaza areas, isolated communities, loss of crops among others. Cities and villages of Maxixe, Morrumbene, Massinga, Inharrime, Funalouro and Homoíne are at the moment partially without electricity.

    The Government had intensified the monitoring of the situation in the affected districts and had deployed teams to the districts to support the local government to implement the recommended measures. At central level a multisector team for needs assessment was formed by the Government to support the provincial teams. The HCT will join the Government and has already identified an assessment team. The team will be deployed as soon as the situation improves and access to affected areas.

    Although it is too premature to indicate the population to be affected, the estimations done by provincial authorities in Inhambane indicates that about 750,000 people might be affected by cyclone. These figure is based on the total population living in the risk area and will be updated in the next days.

    Based on the MTOTEC update and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)2 storm track the RCO projected the population at risk and in the pathway of the cyclone. Based on this exercise the estimation is that about 735,000 are at risk of the cyclone effects. For more details, see the map in the following page.


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    Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
    Country: Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, Honduras, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, World, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe

    PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR AUGUST 2017

    This brief summarizes FEWS NET’s most forward-looking analysis of projected emergency food assistance needs in FEWS NET coverage countries. The projected size of each country’s acutely food insecure population is compared to last year and the recent five-year average. Countries where external emergency food assistance needs are anticipated are identified. Projected lean season months highlighted in red indicate either an early start or an extension to the typical lean season. Additional information is provided for countries with large food insecure populations, an expectation of high severity, or where other key issues warrant additional discussion.


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    Source: Government of South Africa
    Country: Mozambique, South Africa

    South African Weather Service
    MEDIA RELEASE

    16 February 2017: 11:00

    Tropical cyclone Dineo made landfall near Inhambane, southern Mozambique between 8pm and midnight last night, Wednesday, 15 February. Strong winds, exceeding 100km/hr as well as torrential rainfall and very rough seas were most likely the main weather-related impacts.

    While no direct measurements of rainfall are available in the immediate area of landfall, given the extreme nature of the weather, satellite-derived estimates of overnight rainfall strongly suggest that at least 100 to 200mm of rain (or even more) occurred overnight, along the coast and adjacent interior, between Inharrime in the south and Vilanculos in the north. Confidence in the aforementioned rainfall estimate is further supported by overnight rainfall measurements at Vilanculos (110mm) as well as Maputo (33mm).

    By 8am this morning (refer Figure 1), ex-Dineo has moved progressively inland, and now classified as a tropical depression. Note that the name convention “ex-Dineo” denotes that the formerly marine storm system is now located over land. The central core of the system is close to Chigubo and the Banhine National Park in southern Mozambique at the current time, although the vortex of ex-Dineo is becoming more indistinct as the system weakens. Notwithstanding this weakening trend, the system will still pose a great risk for the next 36 to 48 hours, particularly in terms of further exceptionally heavy rainfall and resultant flooding.

    While the greatest threat today will no doubt be over the entire southern Mozambican region, from Beira southwards, there is also an increasing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the lowveld and escarpment regions of Mpumalanga and Limpopo today, especially towards evening and overnight, when very heavy rain, of the order of 100 to 200mm can be expected over the eastern half of Limpopo province, continuing into tomorrow, Friday, 17 February. In the latter half of Friday, patches of heavy rain may also occur over the western parts of Limpopo province as well as northern Botswana, as the remnants of the low track progressively further westwards over the African subcontinent. By Saturday, patches of heavy rain occurrence could even persist over the northern parts of Namibia and Botswana respectively.

    Naturally, the low-lying, predominantly flat terrain of southern Mozambique will exacerbate the risk of widespread flooding. This risk will be particularly severe along the banks of the lower Limpopo river and Olifants river systems, as they flow through southern Mozambique, towards the floodplain region adjoining Xai-Xai in the south of Mozambique.


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    Source: Reuters - Thomson Reuters Foundation
    Country: Mozambique

    The storm has brought heavy rain and winds, raising the risk of flooding and crop damage in Mozambique

    MAPUTO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Tropical storm Dineo has killed seven people in Mozambique since it hit the eastern coast on Wednesday, the government's disaster centre said on Thursday.

    The storm, has brought heavy rain and winds of up to 160 km an hour (100 mph), raising the risk of flooding and crop damage in the impoverished southern African country.

    Mozambique's emergency operational centre said in a statement about 130,000 people living in the Inhambane province, 500 km north of the capital Maputo, had been affected by the storm. About 20,000 homes were destroyed by heavy rains and fierce winds.

    Read more on the Thomson Reuters Foundation


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    Source: European Commission's Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations
    Country: Mozambique

    SITUATION

    • Tropical Cyclone DINEO continued moving west south-west over the Mozambique Channel as a Tropical Cyclone. On 15 February afternoon UTC, it made landfall near the city of Massinga (Inhambane province), as a Tropical Cyclone with approx. maximum sustained wind speed of 130 km/h. On 16 February at 00.00 UTC, it continued through the provinces of Inhambane.

    • Over the next 24 h, it is forecast to continue moving west, weakening and dissipating.
    Heavy rain and strong winds may still affect the provinces of Inhambane and Gaza as well as heavy rain may also affect Zimbabwe and South Africa. On 16 February at 7.00 UTC, the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) issued a warning for severe weather conditions in several districts of Inhambane and Gaza. There are official reports of at least three deaths and over 50 houses damaged in the districts of Massinga, Jangamo, Morrumbene, Inharrime, Zavala and the cities of Inhambane and Maxixe. Sources: GDACS, JTWC, INAM, Meteo France La-Reunion, Local media


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    Source: UN Resident Coordinator for Mozambique
    Country: Mozambique

    Highlights

    • The tropical cyclone DINEO has weakened to depression stage being now denominated EX-DINEO;

    • The cities and villages of Zavala, Inharrime, Jangamo,
      Maxixe, Homoine, Morrumbene, Massinga and Funhalouro are without electricity;

    • Provincial government of Inhambane estimates that about 653,000 people have been affected overall;

    • In Inhambane, the death toll reported so far is 7 in four in 3 districts and Inhambane city;

    • Government requests for tarpaulin for affected households, school and hospital tents, food assistance;

    • In Gaza province, the situation is calm and the provincial government for safety reasons recommended the suspension of classes.

    Situation Overview

    The province of Inhambane, south of Mozambique has been affected by strong winds and rainfall since 15 February 2017 with more intensity in the afternoon. Major impacts reported so far includes downfall of power poles, trees, destruction of houses and roofs (see pictures attached). Schools, hospitals are also affected and there are sections of the N1 road at risk of being cut especially in Maxixe. Classes in Inhambane were suspended.

    At the moment the cities and villages of Zavala, Inharrime, Jangamo, Maxixe, Homoine, Morrumbene, Massinga and Funhalouro are without electricity. Mobile network was also affected and the communication is somehow limited.

    Massinga, Jangamo, Morrumbene, Zavala, Inharrime and Homoíne seems to be the most affected districts which recorded strong winds of 170km/h. Some of these districts affected recorded between 200-250 mm in the last 24h.

    According to the National Institute for Meteorology INAM update (as of 16.02.17 at 10 am), the tropical cyclone DINEO has weakened to depression stage being now denominated EX-DINEO located in Funhalouro district in Inhambane province moving towards Chigubo district in Gaza province (see figure above and the map below). The system is moving with a speed of 30km/h with winds of 60km/h. The system will continue influencing the weather in Inhambane (Inharrime, Panda, Vilankulos, Maxixe, Mabote and Funhalouro districts) and Gaza (Mandlakazi, Xai-xai, Chibuto, Massingir, Bilene, Guijá, Chokwe, Mabalane, Massangena, Chigubo and Chicualacuala) provinces.

    INAM foresees that heavy rains (> 100 mm in 24 h) and strong winds (> 90 km/h) for Gaza and Inhambane provinces will continue between 16 to 17 February 2017. The effects of EX DINEO will also affect Maputo province with moderate to heavy rains (Magude, Manhiça, Marracuene, Moamba, Namaacha e cidades de Matola and Maputo).

    While there is no enough information yet related to population affected, the provincial government estimates that about 652,684 people might be affected based on the population data of areas affected. So far, there are 9 deaths confirmed and reported namely 1 in Massinga, 2 in Inhambane city, 2 in Jangamo and 4 in Morrumbene. The Government created four teams in the following areas: planning and information, rapid assessment, logistics and shelter whose will be responsible to generate information in the next hours and days. The priority districts/cities for the assessment based on the level of damages are Inhambane, Maxixe, Morrumbene and Massinga.

    Based on the impact and preliminary needs, the Government is requesting for tarpaulin for affected households, big tents for schools and hospitals, food assistance, household kits and water purification supplies. Furthermore, there is a need of assistance with seeds for the second agricultural season.
    In terms of stocks, the HCT members has some non-food items (shelter kits, hygiene kits, family kits, WASH supplies, school tents, leaner kits among others) prepositioned in Inhambane and nearby provinces such as Maputo, Sofala and Gaza provinces that can be made available as soon as needed. In terms of food, there are approximately 1,800 ton of food in the various districts of Gaza and Inhambane provinces.

    In Gaza province, so far the situation is calm with weak rains and moderate wind. However, the provincial government for safety reasons recommended the suspension of classes and made available schools located in safe areas to shelter possible affected people.


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    Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies
    Country: Mozambique

    A. Situation analysis

    Description of the disaster

    Tropical Cyclone Dineo made landfall near Inhambane, Southern Mozambique on 15 February 2017, bringing with it strong winds exceeding 100km/hr, rough sea and torrential rain, According to MTOTEC (satellite imagery, surface analysis, and storm system information for the South West Indian Ocean cyclone basin), the storm evolved from severe tropical storm to Category III1 Tropical Cyclone and reclassified as Ex-Dineo. Despite this weakening trend, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) projects that Ex-Dineo still pose a great risk until 18 February as exceptionally high rainfall, strong winds, and resultant flooding is expected.

    Initial reports indicated that Inhambane province was the most affected, other areas included Vilankulo, Massinga, Murrombene, Maxixe, and Jangamo districts as well as Inhambane City. Although the situation is still evolving, preliminary report of 16 February 2017, indicated 3 deaths and four injured, damaged Infrastructure (electricity, and roads) as a result of the storm in the affected areas.

    The National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) projects that, urban flooding in small villages and cities may affect 200,000 people over the next 7 days and the following river basins is at risk of flooding.


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    Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies
    Country: Mozambique


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    Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
    Country: Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe

    Map-1: On Feb. 17, NASA's Terra satellite provided this visible image that showed the center of the low pressure area over Zimbabwe and clouds extended over found Dineo's clouds stretched over southern Mozambique, Swaziland, eastern Botswana and northeastern South Africa.
    Credits: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response

    Map-2: This 3-D image of rainfall data within Tropical Cyclone Dineo was taken by the GPM satellite on Feb.16. Storms over Swaziland were dropping precipitation at a rate of over 86 mm (3.4 inches) per hour.
    Credits: NASA/JAXA, Hal Pierce

    NASA examined the heavy rainfall generated by Tropical Cyclone Dineo as it made landfall in Mozambique and NASA's Terra satellite spotted the storm's remnants over four countries.

    Late on Feb. 15, Dineo made landfall in southern Mozambique. By Feb. 17 the storm weakened to a remnant low pressure area when NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard Terra captured a visible image that showed the center of the low pressure area over Zimbabwe and clouds extended over found Dineo's clouds stretched over southern Mozambique, Swaziland, eastern Botswana and northeastern South Africa.

    The Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core observatory satellite flew over Mozambique on February 16, 2016 at (4:16 a.m. EST) 0916 UTC after Dineo's maximum sustained winds had fallen to about 60 knots (69 mph) and the storm continued moving inland.

    Data collected by GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments showed that the tropical cyclone was still dropping light to moderate rainfall over a large area of southern Mozambique. This GPM view revealed that some of the most intense rain bands from Dineo had moved over Swaziland and northeastern South Africa. GPM found that a few powerful storms over Swaziland were dropping precipitation at a rate of over 86 mm (3.4 inches) per hour.

    GPM Flyby of Tropical Storm Dineo

    The GPM core observatory satellite's radar (DPR Ku Band) were used to create a 3-D structure of rainfall within Tropical Cyclone Dineo. Storm top heights were reaching heights above 16 km (9.9 miles) before the tropical cyclone came ashore in Mozambique. The tallest storm top heights in rain bands over Swaziland were shown by GPM's radar to reach heights of about 13.6 km (8.4 miles). GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA.

    The low pressure area is expected to continue weakening as it moves further inland.

    Hal Pierce / Rob GutroNASA's Goddard Space Flight Center


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    Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies
    Country: Mozambique

    The Mozambique Red Cross is gearing up to provide emergency assistance to thousands of people displaced from their homes this week by Tropical Cyclone Dineo, amid reports of extensive damage to homes, hospitals, schools and other infrastructure in southern districts.

    Mozambique’s National Emergency Operations Centre estimates that the cyclone displaced some 130,000 people in the hard-hit province of Inhambane and damaged or destroyed 22,000 homes, 49 hospitals and health facilities, 105 schools and other public buildings. Casualty figures remain unclear. Electricity is cut off in many areas, while roads are closed due to downed trees, debris and flooding. Heavy rains continue and worsening floods are anticipated.

    The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies is sending disaster response experts to Mozambique today, releasing emergency funds to support the Mozambique Red Cross response and providing 500 affected families with tarps for emergency shelter and tools for making shelter repairs.

    More than 1,000 volunteers are already working in affected communities in coordination with Inhambane provincial authorities to provide safety and evacuation information in case of severe floods, and are prepared to deliver first aid if necessary.

    “The displacement of families from their homes, the disruption of health services and the prospect of extensive flooding and water contamination all come with major public health risks that will need to be addressed quickly,” says IFRC’s disaster management coordinator for southern Africa, Jamie LeSueur, who deploys to Mozambique today.

    “We expect to help the Mozambique Red Cross scale up shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene assistance and deliver pre-positioned emergency supplies, as soon as needs assessments are completed,” adds LeSueur.

    The governments of Zimbabwe and South Africa have also issued flood alerts as Dineo, which has been downgraded to a tropical storm, threatens heavy rains and flooding as it moves westward. Red Cross volunteers are being mobilized and contingency plans put in place along the path of the storm in anticipation of humanitarian needs.

    “In all of these countries, people are already exceptionally vulnerable after two years of prolonged drought, food shortages and loss of livelihoods,” says LeSueur. “The impacts of a new disaster like this one may further erode their capacity to cope and rebound, and that’s a serious concern.”


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    Source: World Food Programme
    Country: Angola, Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, World, Zambia, Zimbabwe

    HIGHLIGHTS

    • Good performance of the current growing season (October 2016 - April 2017) is badly needed for Southern Africa after two consecutive El Nino induced droughts that led to unprecedented levels of food insecurity.

    • The growing season is now well established with favourable growing condition observed in most of Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and NE South Africa. However, excessive rains have led to instances of localized flooding and higher incidence of pests and diseases.

    • Tanzania is being affected by a severe drought. Even if rainfall improves for the rest of the season, considerable impacts on crop production and pasture conditions are expected. Madagascar is also affected but to a lesser degree, with drought conditions particularly intense in eastern and northern provinces.

    • Other areas affected by drier than average conditions include western Namibia and southwest Angola as well as the Eastern Cape region of South Africa.

    • Seasonal forecasts indicate wetter than average conditions for February to April over most of the region.
    However, Tanzania and Madagascar are likely to remain drier than average. Elsewhere, seasonal outcomes are balanced between favourable crop production and flood/waterlogging risk. In any case, major improvements in crop production relative to the past two years are expected.


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    Source: UN Resident Coordinator for Mozambique
    Country: Mozambique

    Highlights

    • In Inhambane province, 70 health units were affected and 1,687 classrooms partially destroyed affecting 160,000 students;

    • 949 people were hosted in three transit centers during the cyclone in Maxixe city, Inhambane province;

    • One death was reported in Gaza province precisely in Chibuto district;

    • Approximately 29,173 ha of several crops were lost in Inhambane province;

    • The Government have enough food stock (cereals and pulses) for immediate response but need oil, salt and sugar;

    • There is a need of about 128 tons of diverse seeds among cereals, pulses, vegetables and tubers.

    • Preliminary estimation of the financial requirements to restore from the damages is about US$ 13.3 million.

    Situation Overview

    The forecast of the DINEO cyclone indicated that the provinces of Inhambane and Gaza would be affected. In fact, Inhambane province was the most affected while in Gaza the tropical system had minimal impact. According to information shared by the provincial authorities on their daily coordination meetings, Gaza province reported lack of electricity in two districts namely Guijá and Massingir (downfall of power poles) which is currently reestablished, partial destruction of 11 classrooms and 13 houses. The provincial authorities in Gaza communicated the districts to resume the classes. One death was recorded in the province precisely in Chibuto district.
    From 16 -17 February 2017, the north of Gaza province recorded heavy rainfall (75-140 mm in 24h) especially in Chigubo, Pafuri and Massangena districts. As result of the rainfall recorded, in the next 72h it is expected the rising of water level in Limpopo basin with no major impacts expected.
    The provincial government of Inhambane indicates that 128,538 families / 652,684 people are affected across 12 districts in Inhambane province (this is an estimation based on population data living in affected areas). So far, there are 7 deaths confirmed. In Inhambane province, about 116 Government offices were affected by cyclone, being Inhambane city the most affected, followed by Massinga, Maxixe, Inharrime and Morrumbene districts. This situation will somehow impact on the quick resumption of the normal functioning for the different institutions and the Government priority is to restore the damaged infrastructure.
    Still in Inhambane province, 70 health units were affected and 1,687 classrooms partially destroyed (see table 1 below). The cyclone affected 160,000 students and 5,500 teachers. The electricity company is gradually reestablishing the power in Inhambane province especially in the city of Inhambane and Maxixe but majority of the districts affected are still without power. Provincial authorities reported that during the cyclone about 949 people were hosted in three transit centers in Maxixe city. As of 19 February 2017, with the improvement of the weather people returned to their houses and transit centers were closed.
    While the Government is in the process of restoring the affected infrastructure, the challenge is to ensure the provision of education and health services. The HCT is working closely with the Government to address the gaps wherever possible based on available stocks.
    In Inhambane, multisector teams were established to conduct a rapid needs assessment and they are in the field since the day of 16 February 2017. The main needs listed in terms of NFI’s includes tarps, chlorine, certeza, mosquito nets, jerrycan and slabs for approximately 19,581 families. For shelter, roofing material, tents, shelter tools, tarps are required for an estimated 116 families. In terms of food the Government have enough stock (cereals and pulses) for immediate response but need oil, salt and sugar. In general, the government will prioritize the vulnerable groups for humanitarian assistance. The government initiated the assistance to 800 vulnerable families (elderly, household head by children, widows) with food and shelter kits).
    In the agriculture sector, approximately 29,173 ha of several crops were lost being Massinga, Morrumbene, Inhambane and Funhalouro the most affected districts. Moreover, about 135,865 fruit trees (cashew and coconut trees) were lost. These fruit trees represent an important source of incomes for the population affected (most of affected districts were Massinga, Inharrime, Morrumbene and Jangamo districts). The authorities estimated a need of 128 tons of diverse seeds among cereals, pulses, vegetables and tubers.
    Provincial government of Inhambane reported that preliminary estimation of the financial requirements to restore from the damages of DINEO cyclone in infrastructure (roads, health units, schools, government offices), agriculture sectors is about 911 million MT (about US$ 13.3 million). These funding requirements exceeds the financial capacity of the province according to contingency funds approved for 2017.


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    Source: UN Children's Fund
    Country: Mozambique

    1. Overall humanitarian needs and situation:

    Cyclone Dineo hit Imhabane Province on the night on the 15th to 16th of February 2017 affecting mainly coastal districts (Inhambane, Jangano, Homoine, Morrumbene and Massinga) as the cyclone dissipated quickly once on land. Rapid assessment was carried out with INGC team through the supervision of his Excellency the Governor of Imhabane province and technical provincial team.
    Information was triangulated through field visits (Imhabane, Jangano, Maxixe and Morrumbene) and meeting with keys informant people (District Administrators, medical staffs, teachers and directors, AIAS, SDPIE, FIPAG, DPOPHRH …).

    Damages are important mainly on institutional buildings, businesses and private housing (estimated to 20.000 houses directly affected; INGC) due to roof being blown away (such 652.000 persons affected from which 130.000 are in need; INGC). It is rare to have all the building of one compound being completed damaged. Most affected people are staying in their building less impacted or staying with neighbours or relatives. From a rapid assessment made at community level by NGOs and UN agencies, humanitarian community should be able to have details information on number of families who have completely lost their houses (by 21.02.2017) but from field observation it is probably less 8.000 families (such less than 10% of the families).

    Due to power cut limiting pumping, water supply has been a priority issue in the main cities but through quick response, water supply is now operational in 8 of those 9 cities.

    From the the 18.02.2017 most of the needs identified are not anymore live-saving needs but recovery needs mainly related to education, health (impact on institutional buildings) and food security (impact on crop).


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    Source: Médecins Sans Frontières
    Country: Mozambique


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    Source: Assessment Capacities Project
    Country: Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, World

    SOUTH SUDAN

    100,000 people in Unity face Catastrophe (IPC 5) food outcomes between February and April 2017, up from 80,000 in January. Leer, Mayendit and Koch counties are most affected. Although pockets of famine were previously reported in August and September 2016, the food security situation has since significantly deteriorated, and this is expected to continue until the peak of the lean season in July 2017. Lack of humanitarian access to the affected areas is a further concern.

    Read more about South Sudan

    MOZAMBIQUE

    As of 20 February, Inhambane province has reported the most damage and needs in Mozambique in the aftermath of cyclone Dineo. 650,000 people have been affected in the region with 130,000 reporting displacement and general needs.

    Gaza province has also been affected, though on a much lower scale. 70 health facilities were destroyed, as well as communication and transmission towers, impacting on electricity provision. 1,687 classrooms were damaged impacting 160,000 students and 5,500 teachers.

    Read more about Mozambique

    SOMALIA

    Cholera cases, drought-related distress migration, malnutrition, and food insecurity continued to increase in Somalia during the lean season. Both FAO and FEWSNET have stated that with below-average seasonal rainfall predicted when the lean season ends in April-June, famine is a possibility.

    Al Shabaab activities continue to contribute to insecurity and impede humanitarian access, particularly in south-central Somalia. At least 39 were killed and 50 injured in a car bomb at a Mogadishu market on 19 February.

    Read more about Somalia

    Updated: 21/02/2017.
    Next GEO updated on Tuesday 28 February 2017.


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    Source: Southern African Development Community
    Country: Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe

    Highlights

    • Southern and central areas continued to receive well above average rains in January

    • Poor rainfall was received in western and north-eastern SADC and Madagascar

    • The Fall Armyworm has been confirmed in 7 countries in the region. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established

    • Tropical cyclones Carlos and Dineo affected the region in early to mid-February. The impacts of Cyclone Dineo are severe, particularly in southern Mozambique

    Regional Summary

    After a slow start to the rains in many areas early in the season, rains improved in December 2016 in the central and south-eastern parts of the region, then intensified considerably to well above average in January 2017. Much of Botswana, eastern Namibia, south-eastern Angola, southern half of Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique, southern and central Mozambique, and north-western half of South Africa received at least one and half to two times the normal amount of January rainfall (Figure 1, blue oval #1). These high rains led to crops receiving sufficient soil moisture for good harvest potential in many area, although in some areas, the rains resulted in flooding, waterlogging and leaching of soil nutrients. The high rains also affected operations to combat the regional Fall Armyworm outbreak, due to dilution and washing away of chemicals.

    In contrast to the heavy rains in central and southern areas, many of the western and north-eastern parts of the region, as well as eastern Madagascar, received well below average rainfall (Figure 1: red ovals #2, #3, and #4). In many of these areas, the rainfall received was less than a third of the normal January rainfall. Areas affected include western Namibia, western Angola, north-eastern Tanzania, parts of north-eastern Mozambique and eastern Madagascar. The poor rains, combined with high temperatures in some of these areas in January, likely negatively affected any cereal crops grown there.

    The first 10 days of February provided a slight reprieve, with reduced rainfall amounts being received in southern Mozambique, northern South Africa and southern Zimbabwe (Figure 2), after weeks of persistent rains. Such short breaks in rainfall are essential to allow optimal crop growth, facilitate weeding, as well as reduce leaching and waterlogging. Most other areas, excluding western parts of the region, received above average rainfall during this period. In many parts of Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe the total rainfall for the 41-day period from 1 January to 10 February 2017 alone was more than what is typically received from January to March combined.

    The high amount of rainfall that was received in the central and southern areas has generally been sufficient for crop agriculture. An analysis of the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI), a model that indicates the extent to which crops have received the water they require throughout the season, suggests that cereal crops grown in the southern parts of the region have this year received better rainfall distribution rainfall than usual, well suited to crop production (green areas, Figure 3). These areas include Botswana, eastern Namibia, northern and central South Africa, Swaziland, southern Mozambique, and southern Zimbabwe. The higher than average WRSI in these areas implies improved potential for good harvests this season. This positive harvest potential only relates to crop water availability however, and the region is facing other challenges that may reduce the good expectations. While many other areas are showing near average WRSI conditions (grey colours, Figure 3), a few areas have below average crop water satisfaction due to the persistent dry conditions that have been observed there (orange colours, Figure 3). These areas include western Angola, parts of north-western Namibia, much of Tanzania, parts of northern Mozambique, eastern and southern Madagascar, and eastern South Africa. Crop production is likely to be affected in many of these areas, as dry conditions have been experienced through much of the current season. In Tanzania, the first season crop in the bimodal areas was the more severely affected, while the slightly improved January rains in the unimodal areas helped to improve the crop outlook.

    The good rains in most areas have also facilitated significant improvement of vegetation, after two consecutive poor rainfall seasons led to degradation of pastures. The satellite-based vegetation index (Figure 4), which was showing well below average vegetation conditions earlier in the season, is now showing well above average vegetation conditions in most areas except western Namibia, south western Angola, southern South Africa, eastern Madagascar, parts of northern Mozambique, and Tanzania. These are mainly areas that were affected by poor rains as indicated in the previous sections of this report. The above average vegetation conditions in Figure 4 are denoted by green and blue colours, while below average conditions are shown in brown and orange.


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    Source: World Food Programme
    Country: Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe

    Food Assistance in Numbers

    • Over the three month peak of the crisis (January—March), WFP’s aims to reach more than 13 million people with food assistance in Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
    • In January, food assistance reached 10.6 million people in the seven countries.

    Highlights

    • Emergency assistance to those affected by the drought has reached peak intensity. WFP and its partners have augmented activities and will maintain expanded operations at least through March.
    • Additional resources will still make a difference as WFP has mechanisms in place to quickly turn contributions into food and cash transfers for severely vulnerable people in the drought affected countries.

    Situation Update

    • El Niño conditions during the 2015-2016 planting season have caused the most severe drought in more than 30 years in Southern Africa. With the turn of the year, Southern Africa has entered the peak period of the response. Food stocks have largely been depleted and food assistance is often the only lifeline that exists for vulnerable women, men, girls and boys.
    • The nutrition situation has deteriorated in the seven drought affected countries over the last eight months. Acute malnutrition continues to be prevalent with several countries recording wasting levels above 5 percent. Although the nutrition situation in most countries remains below emergency thresholds at national level, pockets of very high acute malnutrition are prevalent in Zimbabwe and Madagascar.
    • Meanwhile, HIV vulnerability in the region remains concerning and signs of increased malnutrition among people living with HIV and AIDS on antiretroviral treatment are emerging along with service delivery break-downs. There is a significant risk that development gains achieved could be lost.

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    Source: World Food Programme
    Country: Mozambique

    Key points:

    Maize meal and rice remained very expensive in Tete province in January

    Maize grain is available in all markets except in Gaza

    Prices for rice and cooking oil are well above the provincial averages in Xai-Xai (Gaza) and Chibabava (Sofala)

    Food Security Outlook

    Seasonal deficits and price increases have been observed for most cereals across the country. Prices continue to increase as the lean season progresses. The high demand for foods – especially for cereals – is likely to lead to price hikes (source: FEWS NET). The high prices could coincide with falling purchasing power and a lack of physical access to markets caused by heavy rains in most parts of the country. At the peak of the rainy season, flooding is expected in localized areas and along major flood plains. The rains could wash away crops, damage infrastructure and farmlands, and displace of some of the population, exposing them to food insecurity.


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